Crypto Attention: validation report

The full evidence profile for this index. For how each test works, see the methodology.

Tracks real stress (convergent validity)

Matched stress gauge	Correlation	vs equity VIX	Timing
Realized bitcoin volatility	0.45	-0.08	Coincident

It moves with crypto-market volatility and is essentially uncorrelated with the equity VIX (-0.08) - a genuinely distinct market, not a repackaged risk proxy. Coincident, not leading.

Catches the major events

52% of major events caught, about 6 days after onset. A spike counts as a catch if it lands within three weeks of the event.

Date	Event	Flagged within
2022-05-09	Terra UST / LUNA collapse	5 days
2022-06-12	Celsius pauses withdrawals	7 days
2022-11-02	FTX collapse begins	12 days
2024-01-10	SEC approves 11 spot bitcoin ETFs	5 days

Examples of caught events; not the full 91-event calendar. Misses are events that never drew a large enough coverage surge, not events the index read wrong.

Spikes mark new narratives (novelty)

+0.9 SD above normal. Spike days score about 0.9 standard deviations above normal on text novelty, versus roughly zero on ordinary days.

Predicts markets?

No, by design. It does not predict bitcoin prices or returns - coincident, confirmed across horizons and model classes.

Predicts the economy?

Not applicable. Crypto has no standard non-market economic series to nowcast (its fundamentals are on-chain), so the real-economy lead test does not apply to this index.

Descriptive validation - measured, not asserted; not investment advice. The shared method for every index is on the methodology page.